Confidence

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We classify not as true or false, but following the IPCC guidance note for translating likelihood terms into intervals when communicating scientific evidence[1][2]:

Likelyhood Scale
Term Likelihood of the Outcome
Virtually certain 99-100% propability
Very likely 90-100% propability
Likely 66-100% propability
Abaout as likely as not 33-66% propability
Unlikely 0-33% propability
Very unlikely 0-10% propability
Exceptionally unlikely 0-1% propability
  1. ↑ https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0178-6
  2. ↑ https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-022-03382-3
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