Confidence: Difference between revisions
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(Created page with "We classify not as true or false, but following the IPCC guidance note for translating likelihood terms into intervals when communicating scientific evidence<ref>https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0178-6</ref><ref>https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-022-03382-3</ref>: {| class="wikitable" |+ Likelyhood Scale |- ! Term !! Likelihood of the Outcome |- | Virtually certain || 99-100% propability |- | Very likely || 90-100% propability |- | Like...") |
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We classify not as true or false, but following the IPCC guidance note for translating likelihood terms into intervals when communicating scientific evidence<ref>https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0178-6</ref><ref>https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-022-03382-3</ref>: | We classify not as true or false, but following the IPCC guidance note for translating likelihood terms into intervals when communicating scientific evidence<ref>https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0178-6</ref><ref>https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-022-03382-3</ref>: | ||
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
|+ Likelyhood Scale |- | |+ Likelyhood Scale | ||
|- | |||
! Term !! Likelihood of the Outcome | ! Term !! Likelihood of the Outcome | ||
|- | |- | ||
Latest revision as of 14:29, 23 January 2026
We classify not as true or false, but following the IPCC guidance note for translating likelihood terms into intervals when communicating scientific evidence[1][2]:
| Term | Likelihood of the Outcome |
|---|---|
| Virtually certain | 99-100% propability |
| Very likely | 90-100% propability |
| Likely | 66-100% propability |
| Abaout as likely as not | 33-66% propability |
| Unlikely | 0-33% propability |
| Very unlikely | 0-10% propability |
| Exceptionally unlikely | 0-1% propability |